Yves here. Note that this account is unabashedly anti-Iranian, and needs to be taken with a fistful of salt, in light of tidbits like the claim that Iran’s new SIGINT ship, the Zagros, launched on January 15, was sunk:
Reports claiming that Iran’s advanced spy vessel Zagros was targeted and sunk by the US in the Red Sea are false.
The ship remains safe and operational, currently sailing in international waters. pic.twitter.com/3ZXlnLuOet
— Current Report (@Currentreport1) March 18, 2025
#Iran‘s @PressTV posts this ‘introduction to the Zagros’ video just days after rumors began circulating online re: the Zagros reconnaissance ship having been targeted and sunk by the US navy (which even the US now seems to be denying). #oott pic.twitter.com/5SzwoywS3q
— Nader Itayim | نادر ایتیّم (@ncitayim) March 19, 2025
Nevertheless, this article is a useful sighting of Trump escalatory moves toward Iran and related scapegoating. But one has to note it starts with unlikely premise, per its headline, that the US would win in a hot war with Iran.
By Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is a long-time observer of the global energy market. Presently he works as Director of Energy Security and Supply Chains, at Strategy International Cyprus. Originally published at OilPrice
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- Escalating tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional militias—including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis—are pushing the Middle East toward a potential large-scale conflict.
- The U.S. has intensified military actions against Iranian-backed forces.
- Oil markets remain complacent despite growing risks.
The energy markets could be on the verge of a Black Swan Bull Market, signaling potential volatility and major geopolitical shifts.
After a brief lull in military confrontations in the Middle East, tensions are once again escalating between Israel and its adversaries—Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis. Recent attention has focused on developments in Syria, where a newly emerging Islamist extremist regime, led by self-proclaimed President Al Jolani, is struggling to maintain control. His forces are engaged in a sectarian war against opposition groups such as the Kurds, former Assad loyalists, and Hezbollah fighters.
The situation remains fluid, especially following sectarian massacres in Alawite and Christian regions by Al Jolani-backed militias. At the same time, Iran and Hezbollah are actively working to destabilize parts of the country. In a significant escalation, Syrian army units have reportedly crossed into Lebanon, potentially igniting a conflict with the Lebanese Armed Forces. Israel has made it clear that it will not support or allow the stabilization of the Al Jolani-led, Turkish-backed government, while simultaneously seeking to expand its influence in Druze-controlled areas near its borders.
Meanwhile, Israel has resumed military operations against Hamas in Gaza and intensified its activities in the West Bank. The IDF is also actively striking Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, increasing the risk of a renewed confrontation. Iran’s deep involvement in all these flashpoints—both militarily and through strategic coordination—suggests a broader regional power play, aimed at challenging Israel and reasserting Tehran’s influence.
Escalation Beyond Israel and Iran
The region’s volatility is further amplified by third-party military actions, particularly U.S. airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen and broader U.S. foreign policy moves. The Trump administration’s stance on Ukraine and Russia is fueling geopolitical instability, indirectly influencing the Middle East’s fragile balance.
As Washington escalates its approach toward Iran, recent reports indicate that the U.S. military has targeted and disabled Iran’s most advanced SIGINT vessel, the Zagros. This marks a major blow to Tehran’s naval intelligence capabilities. The attack comes amid Houthi claims of launching a third assault on U.S. warships in the Red Sea, allegedly targeting the USS Harry S. Truman with missiles and drones.
In response, the Trump administration has declared that as long as threats to commercial vessels in the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden corridor persist, decisive action will be taken against the Houthis. Notably, the U.S. has now expanded its targets to include Iranian assets in Yemen, making it clear that Tehran itself is now in Washington’s crosshairs.
A Shift in U.S. and Israeli strategy
For Israel, the message is equally clear. Trump’s recent approval of renewed military action against Hamas suggests that Washington may have given Israel the green light for a potential final showdown with Iran. With global media focused on Trump’s “One-Day” plan for ending the Ukraine war, the situation could provide cover for joint U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran. Trump has already accused Tehran of orchestrating the Houthi attacks, warning:
Let nobody be fooled! The hundreds of attacks being made by the Houthi—these sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen—are all orchestrated by IRAN.
So far, Iran has dismissed these threats, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asserting that Trump’s “bullying” will have no impact. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a stark warning:
Iran does not seek war, but if anyone threatens us, we will respond with appropriate, decisive, and conclusive action. — IRGC General Hossein Salami
A Full-Scale War: Not if, but When?
A full-scale confrontation between Israel (and potentially the U.S.) and Iran no longer seems a question of if—but when. Some analysts argue that this clash should have already occurred, but the Netanyahu-Trump alliance has faced internal pressure. Washington’s backdoor negotiations with Hamas have limited Netanyahu’s room to maneuver.
Meanwhile, a growing Moscow-Tehran-Beijing alliance has also complicated matters. Recent joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman—involving Russia, China, and Iran—suggest that an attack on Iranian assets could risk triggering Chinese and Russian intervention. Despite these risks, Middle East tensions could soon explode into a full-blown conflict. With global media fixated on Ukraine, NATO, and Trump’s tariff wars, the Middle East is being largely ignored—creating the perfect storm for an unexpected escalation.
Energy Markets Are Blind to the Risk
Oil and gas markets appear bearish, driven by commodity trader algorithms and price pressures. But this complacency could be a critical mistake. A peace deal in Ukraine is nowhere in sight, and Trump’s fragile relationship with Putin could collapse if Moscow continues to push its maximalist demands. A resumption of hostilities in Ukraine would increase energy demand, especially as the EU’s military rearmament efforts gain momentum.
However, the true game-changer remains a potential U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Tehran’s response would be complex and far-reaching—targeting not only Israel and the U.S. but also Gulf Arab states, with Iraqi militias joining the fight. Syria and Yemen would likely become further battlegrounds, escalating regional instability.
For decades, analysts have debated the possibility of a war with Iran, but today, all indicators point to an imminent conflict. Any military action against Iran will go beyond its nuclear facilities, likely targeting the IRGC and Tehran’s energy infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran could strike at U.S. allies in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan.
The economic consequences would be severe. Iran’s oil and gas exports would be wiped off the market, triggering a supply shock. With OPEC+ struggling to compensate Iranian barrels in the short term, energy prices could soar overnight.
The world may be on the brink of a historic geopolitical shift. As attention remains fixed on Ukraine, NATO, and U.S.-China tensions, a potential Middle East conflict is rapidly unfolding behind the scenes. With all signs pointing toward a direct confrontation between Israel, the U.S., and Iran, the Endgame may already be in motion.
The next few weeks could prove decisive.
